From Coffee to Consoles: The State of Europe’s Consumer

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Season 9, Episode 11

This week on “Know More. Risk Better.” Host Logan Miller, Head of European Strategy, is joined by Maria Nurgaziyeva (Head of European Consumer Research) and Amarveer Singh (Senior Analyst, Retail & Gaming) to dissect Europe’s consumer landscape and credit implications. They cover mixed macro signals, disinflation stalling, ECB cuts on pause, labor market softness, and country divergences (Germany, France, UK).

The team assesses 2025 tariff impacts across spirits and luxury, mitigation tactics (cost cuts, pass-throughs, nearshoring), and why the hit has been manageable vs early fears. They dive into commodity pressures (veg oils, cocoa, coffee, dairy, beef, poultry), private label share gains as volumes lag, and why categories like coffee still pass pricing. Regional performance contrasts Europe vs US vs China, then spotlight UK-specific cost shocks (wage, NI, variable mortgages, energy price cap, EPR tax, potential business rate hikes) and France’s sentiment slump hitting Burger King France and furniture retail. Bright spots include gyms, travel, and structurally resilient gaming, alongside event risk from M&A and potential UK gaming duty increases. The episode closes with actionable top picks and pans across IG and HY consumer, food retail, and gaming.