US Post Petition: 2026 Outlook & 2025 Review

US Post Petition: 2026 Outlook & 2025 Review

Patrick Holohan: Managing Editor - LevFin Insights
Evan DuFaux: Special Situations Analyst - LevFin Insights
Scott Flaherty: Senior Reporter - LevFin Insights
Kennedy Rose: Senior Reporter - LevFin Insights

9 December 2025

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Insights into US Post Petition: 2026 Outlook & 2025 Review, including:

  • Market Volatility and Sector Divergence: Explore how persistent policy uncertainty and evolving macro conditions in 2025 led to significant outperformance by higher-quality credits, while distressed and CCC segments posted notable losses.
  • Default Trends and Distress Hotspots: Get a breakdown of default rates and distressed concentrations, with Media, Consumer Goods, Telecom, Basics, and Technology sectors showing the highest issuer-weighted distress.
  • Liability Management and Legal Landscape: Understand the rise of liability management transactions and how shifting legal precedents are reshaping creditor strategies, with a focus on out-of-court restructurings versus traditional Chapter 11.
  • Spotlight Credits and Restructuring Catalysts: Dive into detailed analysis of special situations credits -including AMC, DISH, Hertz, Liberty Puerto Rico, Sabre, and others -highlighting recommendations, catalysts, and capital structure risks.
  • Bankruptcy Data and Advisor Rankings: See which advisors dominated the 2025 bankruptcy landscape and analyze trends in DIP financing, case outcomes, and legal mandates.

Executive Summary

  • This “special situations” report is organized into five parts and outlines our expectations for defaults, sector themes, and legal/covenant trends in 2026, along with a review of notable defaults, liability management, litigation, and bankruptcy events from 2025.
  • Part I discusses our 2026 strategy outlook and examines the mixed performance of leveraged finance markets in 2025, with underperformance in lower-rated segments and ongoing risks from policy volatility and increased deal activity.
  • Part II highlights key sector themes, presents a curated list of special situations credits of market interest, and concludes with LevFin Insights’ “U.S. Restructuring Runway Report” on distressed issuers likely to face near-term restructuring catalysts.
  • Part III provides a comprehensive roundup of 2025 liability management transactions and discusses judicial developments, market adaptations, and emerging themes affecting creditor dynamics as issuers prepare for further headwinds going into 2026.
  • Part IV examines major litigation trends from 2025, including creditor-on-creditor conflicts, antitrust and cooperation agreement disputes, and fraudulent transfer litigation impacting market outcomes.
  • Part V discusses our new Post Petition bankruptcy product, significant chapter 11 cases from 2025 not otherwise covered, and concludes with DIP financing trends, advisor mandates, and case outcomes supported by two data-rich appendices.

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