Technology: Reciprocal Tarrifs Impact

We estimate that reciprocal tariffs would be nearly $100 billion for the tech sector based on proposed rates for each country and the value of US tech imports in 2024.

This figure excludes tariffs already in place, such as China’s 20% and Mexico and Canada’s 25% for non-compliant USMCA goods.

The latest round of tariffs is expected to significantly impact smartphones, particularly affecting companies like AAPL due to their reliance on China for supply chain manufacturing.

Diversification efforts to Vietnam and India may offer limited relief, as those countries are facing 46% and 26% reciprocal tariffs, respectively. Semiconductors are on the list of goods not subject to these tariffs, but it’s unclear if this exemption extends to fully packaged products like GPUs, GPU racks, and solid-state drives.