US Weekly: The Art of the Tariff

Winnie Cisar - Global Head of Strategy, CreditSights
Zachary Griffiths, CFA - Head of IG & Macro Strategy, CreditSights
Charles Johnston, CFA - Head of Energy, CreditSights
Wen Li, CFA - Head of Metals & Mining, CreditSights
Pat Luby - Head of Municipal Strategy, CreditSights
Logan Miller - Head of European Strategy, CreditSights
Brian Perez - Analyst, Credit Strategy, CreditSights
Kathleen Tang - Analyst, Strategy, CreditSights

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
    • Treasury Markets: The US Treasury curve experienced a modest bull flattening over the past week, with the 2Y and 10Y yields declining. The Federal Reserve’s decision to hold rates steady reflects caution amid re-inflation concerns, suggesting a data-dependent approach and likely holding rates higher for longer. President Trump invoked emergency powers to impose tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China leading to negative market reactions, with US equity futures down and UST yields rising in the short and mid-term.
    • Credit Markets: IG spreads widened slightly, while HY spreads also saw an increase. UST yield movements led to lower yields for IG corporates, though HY yields rose marginally. Despite these changes, both IG and HY showed positive total and excess returns for January.
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