US Strategy: Tariff Risks by Sector

Given the broad set of tariffs already imposed or proposed, the CreditSights analyst team observes a significant impact on sectors such as Autos, Retail, Health Care, and Technology. Our methodology assessed each set of tariffs on a scale of 1 (positive) to 5 (very negative). At present, the more insulated sectors appear to be Metals & Mining, Telecom, and Utilities.

Our team also identified 56 individual issuers most “at risk” from a fundamental/operational perspective and 51 issuers deemed better insulated from tariff concerns. The frenetic pace of new/revised/updated tariff proposals and weaker economic data have affected risk sentiment, influencing US IG and HY credit spreads, which have widened to recent levels of 89 bp in IG and 299 bp in HY.

Growth concerns have reemerged as consumer sentiment and spending data have recently weakened, while persistent tariff uncertainty adds to the challenging economic environment.

Treasury yields have shown greater sensitivity to growth challenges, though some upside catalysts persist, such as the fiscal path forward and stalled out disinflation progress. Treasury yields are likely to remain around current levels for now, with asymmetric risk of another leg lower on weak economic data versus a retracing higher on stronger economic data.