Tech: Raising Hyperscaler Capex 2026 Estimates
Jordan Chalfin, CFA: Head of Technology - CreditSights
Michael Pugh: Analyst - CreditSights
9 February 2026
Insights into Tech: Raising Hyperscaler Capex 2026 Estimates, including:
- Record-Breaking Hyperscaler Capex 2026 Projections: Discover why analysts raised estimates to ~$750 billion for the top 5 hyperscalers—a massive 67% YoY increase and the third consecutive year of 60%+ growth driven by AI infrastructure investments.
- Company-Specific Guidance Surprises: Learn how Alphabet’s $175-185 billion, Amazon’s $200 billion, and Meta’s $115-135 billion capex guidance dramatically exceeded consensus estimates and what it means for cloud infrastructure expansion.
- Unprecedented Capex-to-Revenue Ratios: Understand the implications of capex reaching seemingly untenable levels—86% of sales for Oracle, 54% for Meta, 47% for Microsoft, 46% for Alphabet, and 25% for Amazon in 2026.
- Debt Issuance and Funding Implications: Explore potential upside to the ~$93 billion USD hyperscaler bond issuance forecast and how companies will fund their aggressive AI infrastructure buildout through capital markets.
- Strategic Investment Analysis Across Big Tech: Get detailed insights into how each hyperscaler—from Alphabet’s share gains to Microsoft’s finance lease strategy and Oracle’s $45-50 billion funding plan—is positioning for the AI infrastructure race.
Executive Summary
- We are substantially raising our hyperscaler capex estimates for 2026 following the guidance and commentary on calendar 4Q25 earnings calls.
- The 2026 capex guidance blew away our estimates for Alphabet and Amazon and beat our estimate for Meta even though we were substantially above consensus for all of them.
- We are now projecting ~$750 bn in capex for the top 5 hyperscalers, which is up massively from our ~$620 bn estimate in January 2026 and our ~$600 bn estimate in November 2025.
- Our ~$750 bn capex estimate for 2026 implies it will be up ~$300 bn YoY or up ~67% YoY, which would be the third consecutive year of growth exceeding 60% YoY.
- Capex as a % of sales will continue to climb to seemingly untenable levels in CY2026 including ~86% for ORCL, ~54% for META, ~47% for MSFT, ~46% for GOOGL, and ~25% for AMZN.
- There is some upside risk to our previous hyperscaler US$ issuance forecast of ~$93 bn in calendar 2026 driven by higher capex although M&A will also be a swing factor.
Financial Metrics
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