Skip to main content

Executive Summary

  • Treasury Markets: The Treasury curve bear flattened as the 2Y rose 12 bp to 4.95% while the 10Y rose just 5 bp to 4.47%, extending the curve inversion by 8 bp to 48 bp inverted. Treasury auctions for the upcoming week ahead will be highly anticipated ahead of the latest PCE data, as 2Y, 5Y, and 7Y notes will be released between Tuesday and Wednesday of this week.
  • Credit Markets: US IG spreads remained unchanged on the week at 89 bp, while yields rose 6 bp to 5.55%, resulting in nominal excess returns of +0.01% and total return losses of -0.17%. US HY widened 2 bp to 311 bp while yields rose 10 bp to 7.96%, driving weekly excess and total return losses of -0.02% and -0.20%.
  • Municipal Markets: Muni yields were broadly higher last week, but it was the belly of the curve that saw the sharpest movement as the BVAL triple-A benchmark increased by 31 bp in 5-years and 34 bp in 10-years while the 1-year yield rose by 9 bp and in 30-years it rose by just 3 bp. This week’s new issue calendar totals $7.7 bn, of which $677 mn is taxable. The forward calendar is building but should also benefit from demand fueled by the heavy redemption flows in the month of June.
  • Equity Markets: Equity market performance was mixed as the tech heavy Nasdaq (+1.4%) outperformed as a result from stellar earnings from NVIDIA, this was followed by the S&P 500 that ended the week flat (0.0%). Small caps Russell 2000 and the DJIA underperformed with weekly total return losses of -1.2% and -2.3%, respectively. Volatility remained relatively flat despite a mid-week spike to 13.37, before closing Friday at 11.92, down just 0.6% WoW.
  • Commodity Markets: Oil prices continued to grind lower with WTI ending Friday at $77.80/bbl, down 2.8%; even so, persistent geopolitical tensions, the looming OPEC+ meeting and the start of the US summer driving season are keeping prices elevated relative to beginning of year levels. Base and precious metals start to retreat after a torrid May, as the ‘higher for longer’ Fed rates continue to exert pressure.
  • Fund Flows: Total fixed income ETF net flows were negative for the first time in five weeks as UST, muni and IG corporate ETFs all lost assets while HY ETFs had a fifth consecutive week of net inflows.

Relative Value

Treasury Markets:

Credit Markets:

Municipal Markets:

Equity Markets:

Commodity Markets:

Oil prices continued to edge lower with WTI ending Friday at $77.68/bbl, down 3%, amid the outlook for higher interest rate in face of inflation, despite the upcoming OPEC+ meeting and the start of the US summer driving season.

Fund Flows:

Money Market Fund Flows

Long-Term Mutual Fund & ETF Flows for the Week Ended Wednesday, May 22

ETF Activity for the Calendar Week Ended on Friday, May 24

Our archive of fixed income ETF reports is available on the ETF Home Page.

For more about how we compile mutual fund and ETF flows please see Spotlight on Fund Flow Reporting – An Update.


Winnie Cisar, CFA
Global Head of Strategy

Zachary Griffiths, CFA
Head of IG & Macro Strategy

Eric Axon, CFA
Co-Head of High Yield, Head of Healthcare 

Charles Johnston, CFA
Head of Energy

Wen Li, CFA
Global Head of Strategy

Pat Luby
Head of Municipal Strategy

Logan Miller
Head of European Strategy

Brian Perez
Analyst, Credit Strategy

Kathleen Tang
Analyst, Strategy



This Report is for informational purposes only. Neither the information contained in this Report, nor any opinion expressed therein is intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any security or as personalized investment advice. CreditSights and its affiliates do not recommend the purchase or sale of financial products or securities, and do not give investment advice or provide any legal, auditing, accounting, appraisal, valuation or actuarial services. Neither CreditSights nor the persons involved in preparing this Report or their respective households has a financial interest in the securities discussed herein. Recommendations made in a report may not be suitable for all investors and do not take into account any particular user’s investment risk tolerance, return objectives, asset allocation, investment horizon, or any other factors or constraints.
Information included in any article that includes analysis of documents, agreements, controversies, or proceedings is for informational purposes only and does not constitute legal advice. No attorney client relationship is created between any reader and CreditSights as a result of the publication of any research report, or any response provided by CreditSights (including, but not limited to, the ask an analyst feature or any other analyst interaction) or as the result of the payment to CreditSights of subscription fees. The material included in an article may not reflect the most current legal developments. We disclaim all liability in respect to actions taken or not taken based on any or all the contents of any research report or communication to the fullest extent permitted by law.
Reproduction of this report, even for internal distribution, is strictly prohibited. Receipt and review of this research report constitutes your agreement not to redistribute, retransmit, or disclose to others the contents, opinions, conclusion or information contained in this report (including any investment recommendations or estimates) without first obtaining express permission from CreditSights. The information in this Report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable; however, neither its accuracy, nor completeness, nor the opinions based thereon are guaranteed. The products are being provided to the user on an “as is” basis, exclusive of any express or implied warranty or representation of any kind, including as to the accuracy, timeliness, completeness, or merchantability or fitness for any particular purpose of the report or of any such information or data, or that the report will meet any user’s requirements. CreditSights may issue or may have issued other reports that are inconsistent with or may reach different conclusions than those represented in this Report, and all opinions are reflective of judgments made on the original date of publication. CreditSights is under no obligation to ensure that other reports are brought to the attention of any recipient of the Products.
CreditSights Risk Products, including its Credit Quality Scores and related information, and discontinued products, such as CreditSights Ratings, are provided by CreditSights Analytics, LLC. CreditSights Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA). This product is not intended for use in the UK by retail clients, as defined by the FCA. This report is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity in any jurisdiction or country where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation.
Certain data appearing herein is owned by, and used under license from, certain third parties. Please see Legal Notices for important information and limitations regarding such data. For terms of use, see Terms & Conditions.
If you have any questions regarding the contents of this report contact CreditSights at
© 2024. CreditSights, Inc. All rights reserved.