U.S. Special Situations 2026 Outlook & 2025 Review

U.S. Special Sits: 2026 Outlook & 2025 Review

Winnie Cisar: Global Head of Strategy - CreditSights
Mark Lightner, Esq.: Head of Special Situations Legal Research - CreditSights
Ian Feng, J.D.: Senior Covenant Analyst - CreditSights
Patrick Holohan: Managing Editor - LevFin Insights
Davis Hebert, CFA: Co-Head HY Research, Head of Telecom/Media - CreditSights
David Bussey, CFA: Senior Analyst, Leisure - CreditSights
Todd Duvick, CFA: Head of Autos - CreditSights
Jory M. Eisenberg, CFA, FRM: Senior Analyst, Special Situations - CreditSights
James Goldstein, CFA: Head of Retail - CreditSights
Joshua Kramer: Senior Analyst, Special Situations - CreditSights
Will Lee: Analyst, Autos - CreditSights
Hunter Martin, CFA: Head of Media/Cable - CreditSights
Brian McKenna: Analyst, Telecom & Media/Cable - CreditSights
Erick Vega, CFA: Senior Analyst, Telecom Infrastructure - CreditSights
Nick Williams: Senior Analyst, Special Situations - CreditSights
Kathleen Tang: Analyst, Strategy - CreditSights
Brian Perez: Analyst, Credit Strategy - CreditSights
Evan DuFaux: Special Situations Analyst - CreditSights

9 December 2025

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Insights into U.S. Special Situations: 2026 Outlook & 2025 Review, including:

  • Challenging Macro Backdrop: Explore how persistent trade friction, policy volatility, and labor market softness are shaping leveraged finance opportunities.
  • Sector Divergence Highlights: Understand which sectors outperformed in 2025, which faced steep losses, and what these shifts signal for the opportunities and risks shaping 2026.
  • Default and Distressed Trends: Get insights into default rates, with BSL defaults outpacing high yield, and learn why liability management transactions now drive the majority of defaults.
  • Restructuring & Legal Developments: Discover the impact of evolving legal strategies, creditor-on-creditor conflicts, and recent bankruptcy trends on credit selection and recoveries.
  • Spotlight on Key Credits: Dive into detailed coverage of headline names including AMC, DISH/EchoStar, Xerox, Telesat, and more – featuring recommendations and capital structure analysis.

Executive Summary

  • This “special situations” report is organized into five parts and outlines our expectations for defaults, sector themes, and legal/covenant trends in 2026, along with a review of notable defaults, liability management, litigation, and bankruptcy events from 2025.

  • Part I discusses our 2026 strategy outlook and examines the mixed performance of leveraged finance markets in 2025, with underperformance in lower-rated segments and ongoing risks from policy volatility and increased deal activity.

  • Part II highlights key sector themes, presents a curated list of special situations credits of market interest, and concludes with LevFin Insights’ “U.S. Restructuring Runway Report” on distressed issuers likely to face near-term restructuring catalysts.

  • Part III provides a comprehensive roundup of 2025 liability management transactions and discusses judicial developments, market adaptations, and emerging themes affecting creditor dynamics as issuers prepare for further headwinds going into 2026.

  • Part IV examines major litigation trends from 2025, including creditor-on-creditor conflicts, antitrust and cooperation agreement disputes, and fraudulent transfer litigation impacting market outcomes.

  • Part V discusses our new Post Petition bankruptcy product, significant chapter 11 cases from 2025 not otherwise covered, and concludes with DIP financing trends, advisor mandates, and case outcomes supported by two data-rich appendices.

  • The report is fully interactive and features clickable links to additional coverage, topical webinars, and podcasts.

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