Oracle: Top 20 Client FAQs
Jordan Chalfin, CFA: Head of Technology - CreditSights
Michael Pugh: Analyst - CreditSights
26 January 2026
Insights into Oracle: Top 20 Client FAQs, including:
- Massive Debt Issuance Requirements: Discover how Creditsights analysis reveals approximately $70 billion in debt issuance needs over the next 2.5 fiscal years (F3Q26-F4Q28) to fund aggressive AI cloud infrastructure expansion.
- OpenAI Contract Risk Assessment: Understand the implications of Oracle’s unprecedented $300 billion 5-year contract with OpenAI, including customer concentration risks and the enforceability of contractual commitments.
- Investment Grade Rating Pressure: Evaluate Oracle’s mid-BBB ratings (Baa2/BBB/BBB) with negative outlooks at Moody’s and S&P, and assess the probability of a downgrade to Baa3 despite management’s commitment to IG ratings.
- Unprecedented Capex and FCF Burn: Analyze Oracle’s dramatic capex trajectory from $21.2bn in FY2025 to projected $80bn in FY2028 (60% of sales), driving timing-related free cash flow burn of -$25bn in FY2026 through -$16bn in FY2028.
- Alternative Financing and Mitigation Strategies: Explore potential debt reduction solutions including GPU leasing arrangements, vendor financing options, and the impact of $248 billion in lease commitments on leverage metrics reaching 3.7x net lease-adjusted by FY2028.
Executive Summary
- We highlight the top 20 frequently asked questions from clients on Oracle and provide our answers in this report.
Relative Value Financial Metrics
1. What is your recommendation on Oracle’s bonds?
Oracle is by far the widest credit in our IG tech coverage universe and is trading in high-BB territory, which is two notches below its mid-BBB ratings. We believe the market has more than fully priced in the heavy capex and issuance needs over the next few years, and the resulting technical pressure to its bonds. It’s our view that current trading levels primarily reflect the binary risk related to OpenAI. If OpenAI can’t meet its commitments, Oracle could see substantial downside given lease commitments on data centers that would be empty and/or have underutilized hardware.
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