LNG Market Update: FID Wave Leading to Oversupply?
Charles Johnston, CFA - Head of Energy, CreditSights
Ben Morgan, CFA - Senior Analyst, Energy, CreditSights
Mamadou Barry - Analyst, Energy, CreditSights
22 October 2025
Insights into LNG Market Update including:
Supply and capacity outlook: Massive wave of new capacity targeting mid-decade start-ups with US and Qatar dominating expansion as industry enters unprecedented growth phase.
Price and spread dynamics: Global arb spreads compressed significantly from post-Ukraine peaks toward pre-crisis levels with forward markets signaling further tightening as new supply ramps.
Project and developer landscape: First-movers Cheniere and Venture Global commanding dominant market position while financial sponsors increasingly active through recent JV structures across fragmented field.
Demand and regional drivers: Asian markets rebounding after recent softness with China leading long-term growth trajectory while Europe maintains elevated import levels as structural replacement.
Project financing and construction trends: Recent FIDs showing higher capital intensity with extensive long-term contracting reducing volume risk as exposure bifurcates between fully-contracted and merchant-exposed developments.
Executive Summary
The global LNG market is bracing for a significant wave of supply growth over the medium-term driven by expected contributions from recent project starts across the U.S. and Middle East. Over 2025-2030, the IEA forecasts ~220 mtpa to come online from projects that have reached FID or are already under construction.
We are tracking 15 projects from North America and Qatar alone that are expected to enter service across this timeframe, totaling more than 200 mtpa. 9 of these from the U.S. are currently under construction, with project costs totaling $149 bn, adding an incremental 158 mtpa of supply across 2025 to 2031.
Given the wave of highly contracted supply coming, there is downside risk to the arb spread if demand doesn’t keep growing as expected.With the liquefaction fees being sunk costs, we expect the vast majority of contracted exports to flow across the docks, so the risk is on the price side rather than it being a volume risk.
While we review each project individually, first mover Cheniere and Venture Global dominate ownership of LNG export capacity.Cheniere owns almost half of the currently in-service 94 mtpa of capacity, while Cheniere and Venture Global combined own approximately half of the ~250 mtpa of total capacity expected online by 2031.
