US Autos: Tariff Regime Evolving
Todd Duvick - Head of Autos, CreditSights
Will Lee - Analyst, Autos, CreditSights
13 October 2025
Insights into U.S. auto tariffs 2026, spanning policy shifts, legal dynamics, North American trade, pricing drivers, and automaker strategy themes, including:
Evolving policy landscape: Explore how shifting trade agreements and tariff policies are reshaping the U.S. auto sector’s operating environment.
Legal overhangs: Understand the potential implications of upcoming court decisions on the stability and direction of auto/parts tariffs.
North American trade dynamics: Learn what to watch in the lead-up to USMCA’s review and how future negotiations could influence cross-border sourcing.
Pricing trajectory: Get a view on the factors that could drive vehicle pricing into 2026 and the conditions that may moderate them.
Profit and strategy themes: See how tariff relief, regulatory shifts, EV dynamics, and industry playbooks may affect automaker profitability and production strategies.
Executive Summary
Bilateral trade agreements promise lower auto tariffs, but deal finalization varies. The UK and Japan trade agreements have reduced tariffs from 25%, but agreements with the EU and South Korea have yet to be finalized.
Could lower Auto/Parts tariffs be caught up in future IEEPA tariff court decisions? Section 232 auto tariffs have become intertwined with International Emergency Economic Power Act (IEEPA) tariffs via the bilateral trade agreements, raising concern about the stickiness of lower auto/parts tariffs under a SCOTUS review of IEEPA tariffs.
US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) renegotiation is slated for mid-2026. Leaders from Canada and Mexico have held coordination talks ahead of the USMCA review, while President Trump has signaled an interest in bilateral agreements and potentially scrapping the USMCA.
The Trump Administration is considering further tariff relief for US vehicle production. Trump is considering an extension of the parts tariff relief adjustment from two years to five years, according to Senator Bernie Moreno.
Tariff impact on pricing remains muted but could pick up with 2026 model year launches. US vehicle retail price inflation could accelerate in 4Q25 and into next year with 2026 model year launches, facilitated in part by lower expected financing rates.
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