Our forecast for 2Q24 includes the following highlights:

• We’re adjusting our Euro IG allocation and maintaining our view on Euro HY as spreads have rallied through our initial year-end forecasts, leaving modest upside for excess returns.
• We’re sticking with our initial call for three 25-bp policy rate reductions by the ECB commencing in June. We expect economic growth to remain subdued.
• While our views on credit spreads remain consistent with our 2024 outlook, we’ve increased the probability that our bull case forecasts materialize.
• After a punchy start to the year in primary markets, we’re maintaining our IG gross issuance forecast of €575 billion. We’ve held our HY gross issuance forecast at €90 billion.