Download the Full Report to Gain:

Insights into 2026 Preliminary US Credit Outlook: Everything Was Awesome, including:

Market setup and valuation context: See how historically tight credit spreads across investment grade and high yield reflect resilient technical conditions and strong year-to-date performance, while underlying concerns about labor market deterioration, persistent inflation, and mixed economic signals create an increasingly complex backdrop for credit investors navigating near-record valuations.

Scenario framework and probability weighting: Understand the three-path outlook structure spanning base case labor market erosion with modest Fed easing, bull case immaculate disinflation enabling continued monetary accommodation, and bear case inflation re-acceleration forcing policy reversal, each carrying different implications for credit spreads and economic fundamentals.

Fed policy evolution and rates positioning: Learn how expectations for monetary policy divergence from current market pricing influence duration strategy, with potential for more aggressive easing cycles supporting Treasury performance and curve steepening dynamics as labor market weakness becomes more pronounced relative to inflation persistence.

Credit market differentiation across sectors: Gauge the shifting landscape between investment grade total return opportunities versus excess return challenges, high yield quality bifurcation, and leveraged loan price pressure, as technical support meets fundamental headwinds and supply dynamics evolve through the forecast horizon.

Risk factor monitoring and portfolio implications: Identify key tail risks spanning consumer spending deterioration, policy uncertainty and institutional credibility concerns, AI investment return questions, and operational disruption threats, while considering how tight spread environments amplify the importance of security selection and risk management in portfolio construction approaches.