Emerging Markets – Preliminary 2027 Outlook

Regis Chatellier: Head of EM Sovereign Strategy

13 October 2026

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How geopolitical tensions and energy prices are shaping emerging market growth prospects.
What inflation pressures and policy responses could mean for sovereign credit conditions.
Why fiscal pressures and financing requirements remain important considerations across emerging economies.
Which credit fundamentals may influence sovereign rating trends and bond market resilience.
Where market valuations, global rates and geopolitical risks could create emerging market vulnerabilities.

Executive Summary

Geopolitical tensions are reshaping growth conditions across emerging markets. Energy pressures continue affecting economic resilience.

Sovereign finances face pressure from subsidies and substantial funding requirements. However, fiscal conditions vary significantly across countries.

Credit fundamentals remain broadly supported across the emerging market universe. Positive outlooks indicate continuing sovereign credit resilience.

Meanwhile, bond issuance remains important as governments address persistent financing needs. International markets provide essential funding access.

Market valuations appear disconnected from financial and geopolitical pressures. Global rates may strongly influence future performance.

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