Grounded & Rerouted: Middle East Impact on European Aviation

In this episode of the Know More. Risk Better. podcast, host Logan Miller speaks with Mihir Trivedi, Senior Analyst for European Transportation, about the fast-moving Middle East conflict and its implications for global aviation and European credit. They explain why Middle Eastern airspace is a critical corridor linking Europe and North America to Asia, and how widespread airspace closures and airport disruptions have triggered mass cancellations, longer reroutings, and higher operating costs that are ultimately passed through to consumers. The discussion covers near-term demand effects, including weaker passenger numbers, deferred business travel, and reduced load factors, alongside medium-term implications such as higher airfares, capacity being redirected to other routes like the transatlantic market, and a potential shift toward more direct ultra long-haul flights. They also assess financial pressure points for airlines, focusing on jet fuel as the largest cost line, the importance of hedging into 2026, and how fleet efficiency can create winners and losers as disruptions extend. The episode concludes with relative value views across airports and airlines, highlighting Heathrow’s constraints and exposure versus more defensive alternatives, and reiterating a preference for higher-quality balance sheets in the airline space.