U.S. Consumer Check: Credit Quality Meets Uncertainty

In this episode of the Know More. Risk Better. podcast, host Winnie Cisar, Global Head of Strategy at CreditSights, speaks with Peter Simon, Head of U.S. Banks, and Iris Shi, Senior Banks Analyst, about the state of the US consumer in 2026. They tackle the disconnect between negative consumer sentiment headlines and the more constructive narrative from bank earnings.
The discussion explores key data points supporting consumer health, including low unemployment in the mid-4% range, elevated consumer balance sheets up 30-40% since pre-COVID, and stable payment rates. They analyze credit quality trends, examining how improved lending vintages from 2023 onwards are driving stabilization through early 2026. The conversation delves into spending dynamics, revealing mid-single-digit purchase volume growth and bifurcation across income tiers, with American Express showing strength in travel and luxury while Synchrony sees weakness in furniture and home improvement. They dissect the student loan situation, analyzing the sharp rise to 9.6% delinquency in December 2025, Trump administration reforms under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, and why contagion risk to other consumer lending categories remains limited. The episode concludes with underappreciated risks, including generational dynamics affecting Gen Z borrowers and regulatory proposals like the 10% credit card interest rate cap. Listen now to gain expert perspectives on consumer credit positioning opportunities for 2026.