Chems Quick Takes: End-Markets, Margins, Recovery?
Andrew Brady: Head of Basics - CreditSights
Jarah Cotton: Analyst, Chemicals - CreditSights
30 January 2026
Insights into Chems Quick Takes: End-Markets, Margins, Recovery?, including:
- End-Market Divergence Creates Mixed Signals: Discover how automotive presents the sole bright spot while construction stalls and packaging volumes grow only through price concessions, creating a challenging landscape where strength in one sector cannot offset broader deterioration.
- Asian Oversupply Reshapes Global Dynamics: Learn how Middle Eastern capacity additions and China’s weak domestic demand are flooding export markets, forcing European and North American producers to idle crackers indefinitely despite historical feedstock advantages.
- Integration Amplifies Losses in Oversupplied Markets: Understand why integrated producers like Dow and LyondellBasell achieve production records yet report margin compression as competitors maintain high utilization rates, making coordinated capacity reductions nearly impossible and delaying any Chemical Industry Margins Recovery.
- European Operations Face Structural Disadvantages: See how energy costs well above North American levels prevent profitability recovery in Europe, with capacity closures described as “cash accretive” rather than positioning for growth—suggesting these are defensive moves to stop losses rather than strategic repositioning.
- Recovery Timeline Extends Into Uncertainty: Gauge how management teams have repeatedly deferred recovery expectations from second-half 2025 to first-half 2026 to mid-year and beyond, with limited visibility and customers shifting to weeks-ahead ordering patterns instead of months-ahead commitments.
Executive Summary
- One engine runs while three others sputter—automotive improves as construction stalls and packaging moves volume only by bleeding margin, creating the kind of mixed picture where the healthy division feels like it is drowning. Competitors keep giving price to keep factories full, hurting their own announced increases and turning cost savings into treadmills faster than Planet Fitness in January.
- Every integrated producer faces the same math: shut down and lose money permanently, or run full and lose money temporarily—except “temporary” means longer here than in any other context we could find. Feedstock advantages turn south when oil drops and pricing falls faster than input costs, leaving investors wondering about market structure that rewards whoever doesn’t blink.
End Markets – Darkness Outshines the Light
Construction shows limited upside despite rate cuts. Residential permits stay below prior levels though some improvement appears in recent data. Commercial activity remains depressed across office and retail.
Fill out the below form to view the full article:
Please note that we can only respond to valid business email addresses and the interview is already available to clients.
Recently Published
Research



