US Consumer: Eat the Rich or Eat the Risk?
Date: December 4, 2023
Moderator: James Goldstein, CFA – Head of Retail, CreditSights
Panelists: David Bussey – Senior Leisure Analyst, CreditSights
James Dunn – Head of Consumer Goods & Leisure, CreditSights
Todd Duvick, CFA – Head of Autos, CreditSights
Summary:
- Looking For the Cracks: A relatively robust landscape for consumer spending is not without pockets of weakness. What’s in store for 2024?
- Does the Music Ever Stop? 2023 has seen extremely robust leisure and entertainment demand. Is Taylor Swift a secret stimulative fiscal policy tool? Are we structurally in a “leisure-for-life” world? Where does the goods vs. services mix ultimately shake out?
- Inflation/Affordability: Rising cost pressure on non-discretionary goods is altering consumer behavior towards more value seeking behavior. On more discretionary/big ticket items, rapidly rising consumer financing costs bring additional pressure… EVs are an interesting case study.
- That’ll Cost You: Some relief on commodity costs, but labor cost growth persists, and it increasingly feels like “Year of the Union” with successes at UAW, Longshore, Rails, Culinary Union, etc. along with big wins for minimum wage advocates (CA fast food, etc.). How do corporates navigate rising labor costs?
- How to Play It? Picking the winners/losers in credits.
View the Replay
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