Executive Summary

• We provide a rundown of themes to watch in 1Q26 U.S. bank earnings results, as we expect results that should be far more stable and less volatile than the quarter’s macro and market backdrop would indicate.

• Issuance post-earnings from the Big 6 should be less voluminous relative to 1Q26, but could still feature low-to-mid $20s bn in supply based on refinancing and capital markets activity funding needs.

• Capital markets are expected to perform strongly in 1Q26, with strong sales and trading revenues benefiting from heightened market volatility. We also expect to see robust investment banking fees supported by increased M&A and equity capital markets activity despite geopolitical volatility which may have pushed some activity into 2Q26.

• Credit quality should remain a benign story, and while management teams are likely to comment on events in private credit and AI/software, these themes should have limited impact on 1Q metrics. Consumer credit should be stable due to tighter underwriting in recent years and runoff of weak vintages, supported by healthy household balance sheets.

• The net interest income picture should remain balanced; loan growth is improving driven by ongoing expansion of NDFI lending as well as broader C&I growth. The quarter will include the full impact of 4Q25 rate cuts which would reduce loan yields, though market expectation for further rate cuts have been dialed back significantly and the sector largely remains positioned relatively neutral to the direction of short-term rates.