CreditSights European Outlook Conference 2023

Thursday 7th December 2023
View Agenda
Register below for our Outlook Conference in London:

Event Details

Thursday, December 7th
2023
Convene – 22 Bishopsgate, London, EC2N 4BQ

Event Details

8:30 – 18:00 GMT
Registration opens at 08:00am
All Research

CreditSights analysts, Covenant Review lawyers, and LevFin Insights journalists will collaborate to share their forecasts for 2024 during this full day event.

The conference will focus on the outlook for 2024, and comprise our views on market trends and sector themes as well as more company specific considerations. Alongside our dedicated analyst presentations, we will have expert panels with members of the CreditSights, Covenant Review and LevFin Insights teams, as well as external market participants, who will be sharing their views on prospects for 2024, the challenges investors face and how to navigate them.
We will focus on sector outlooks, macro themes, and give our predictions for which companies will thrive and which will falter in the European Investment Grade and High Yield markets.
The presentations will be followed by reception drinks and the opportunity to connect with our analysts and others within the industry.
If you have any questions, please get in touch with our  events team.

Agenda:

8:50am - Introductory Remarks

Brian Studioso: European Head of Research, CreditSights

9:00am - European Credit and EM Sovereign 2024 Outlook

Logan Miller: Head of European Strategy, CreditSights
Regis Chatellier: Head of EM Sovereign Strategy
, CreditSights
A presentation on the outlook for Euro IG and HY corporate credit in 2023, and a discussion about the risks and investment considerations across emerging market sovereign debt markets.

9:40am - US & European Banks: Atychiphobia

Simon Adamson: Head of Financials, CreditSights
Jesse Rosenthal: Head of Banks
, CreditSights
Puja Karia:
Head of Western European Banks, CreditSights
Jennifer Ray:
Head of Northern European Banks, CreditSights
Lessons learned from the recent bank failures
• Regulatory consequences – impact and implications
• Looking ahead – liquidity, capital, risk and credit spreads

10:20am - Euro Real Estate: You Can Never Go Home Again

Mary Pollock, CFA: Head of Real Estate, CreditSights
The European real estate sector remains front of mind for investors going into 2024. We consider how far we have come in this property cycle and focus on the outlook for credit metrics, potential catalysts, and spreads in the coming months.

11:05am - Hybrid Hustle and AT1 Antics: Navigating High Rate Hurdles

Paola Biraschi: Head of Southern European Banks, CreditSights
Larissa Knepper: Head of Insurance, CreditSights
Andrew Moulder: Head of Utilities, CreditSights
Mary Pollock, CFA: Head of Real Estate, CreditSights
Moderator – Logan Miller: Head of European Strategy, CreditSights
In this panel, four CreditSights analysts from both the corporates and financials teams will discuss key risks and considerations for hybrids and AT1s in the current environment. We will provide context from what we learned in 2023, from Credit Suisse to SBB, and discuss what we are focused on as we enter another year of elevated interest rates in 2024.

11:45am - HY and Leveraged Finance Market Panel: 2024 Outlook For High-Yield

Jane Gray: Managing Director, Head of European Research, Covenant Review
Stanford Hartman: Head of EMEA HY Bond & Loan Syndicate, BNP Paribas
Stephen Smith: Head of Capital Markets, Sona Asset Management
Brian Studioso: Head of European Research, CreditSights
Moderator – Luke Millar: Global Editor-in-Chief,
LevFin Insights
The panel will look at the main headwinds and tailwinds for European primary and secondary markets, including:
• Where will new money supply come from and will the market continue to shrink?
• Whether the steepening maturity wall offers challenges for all sides of the market.
• Will there be more stressed refinancings and what will be the key flexibilities issuers look to utilize?
• Which way will documents go – tighter or looser?
• The outlook for returns and the relative value proposition versus the rest of the leveraged finance asset-classes.
• How are investors positioned going into the year and do they foresee the need to change course?

Track 01:

13:25pm - Euro Utilities: 2024 Outlook – Winds of Change

Andrew Moulder: Head of Utilities, CreditSights
Bozhidar Dinkov: Analyst, Utilities, CreditSights
We expect the Euro utility sector to be stable in 2024, but some things need to change:
• Offshore project economics are under pressure
• UK Water is in the spotlight
• The European gas crisis has not gone away

13:50pm - Euro IG Consumer: The New Normal

Maryum Ali, CFA: Senior Analyst, Consumer Goods, CreditSights
Jahan Miah: Analyst, Consumer Goods, CreditSights
• With inflationary pressures easing and the pandemic in the rearview, we highlight the key themes for the sector heading into 2024.
• Key topics of discussion include: pricing vs volumes, geographic exposure and event risk (i.e. M&A vs shareholder rewards).
• We also touch on GLP-1 and the potential ramifications for the food & bev industry.

14:15pm - Euro Basics Panel – Where are We in the Cycle?

Andrew Belton: Head of Basics and Infrastructure, CreditSights
Laurent Vergnault:
Senior Analyst, Chemicals, Paper & Packaging, CreditSights
Felicity Juckes: Analyst, Chemicals, Paper & Packaging
, CreditSights
Mihir Trivedi: Analyst, Construction / Infrastructure, CreditSights
We invite four of our Euro Basics analysts to discuss where the various sectors are in their respective cycles:
– Building Materials & Construction
– Chemicals
– Metals & Mining
– Paper & Packaging
We review the year just gone, highlight what went to plan, and examine what surprised us
We also look forward to 2024
– Has the typical cycle changed?
– Has inflation played out as a risk?
– How susceptible is the space to “High for Longer” fallout?
– Will the long-feared recession actually arrive?
– Is the focus on Sustainability just a Fashion or a new Zeitgiest?
Finally we outline our thoughts on Relative Value and put forward our key Picks and Pans

15:15pm - HY Auto's and Industrials - Into the Unknown - A Discussion

Jim Williamson: Senior Analyst, Autos, CreditSights
Mark Ryan: Analyst, Autos, CreditSights
Ash Nadershahi: Head of HY Industrials & Transportation, CreditSights
With economic uncertainty front and center, we discuss in detail some of the key themes and considerations for cyclically exposed HY Auto and Industrial credits in 2024.

16:00pm - European Insurance Outlook 2024: Grandfathering Lottery?

Martina Seydoux: Senior Analyst, Insurance, CreditSights
• As we edge closer to the end of Solvency II grandfathering in 2025, calls and tenders will be the main game in town but it is likely to be a lottery.
• The European insurance fundamental outlook will be more of the same with strong earnings feeding higher solvency ratios as inflation risks appear to be abating.
• As the loss burden from elevated nat cats shifts to primary insurers, with 2024 impossible to predict, macro headwinds likely to influence credit spread movements more than fundamentals.

16:25pm - HY Services: Credit Smorgasbord

Mathieu Le Cann, CFA: Senior Analyst, Services, CreditSights
• In this most idiosyncratic of sectors, we shed light on the overarching macro risks and take a closer look at equipment rental and parking operators.
• We examine the impact of interest rates on financial policies and assess the 2024 outlook for refinancing and M&A activity.
• We select those dishes that investors should indulge in and those that are better left untouched.

Track 02:

13:25pm - Leveraged Loans: Lessons from 2023, Prospects for 2024

Ruth McGavin: Managing Editor, LevFin Insights
• Borrowers find success, and face challenges, in tackling debt maturities
• How to build bridges over the valuation gap and revive M&A activity
• The developing “sibling rivalry” between syndicated and private lending
• Outlook for CLO issuance as core driver of technical demand

13:50pm - Managing Maturities: Loan A&Es and Bond Refinancings

Shoshanna Harrow: Senior Director, Senior Covenant Analyst, Covenant Review
Shane Burke: Director, Senior Covenant Analyst
, Covenant Review
A discussion on key documentary provisions that facilitate tackling debt maturities (non-coercive), with case studies on tightened terms, widened terms, and loopholes to watch for.

14:15pm - European Special Situations: What’s Going Down

Sandrine Bradley: Senior Reporter, LevFin Insights
Mark Chapman: Head of European TMT, CreditSights
Alastair Gillespie: Senior Director, Covenant Review
Gijs de Reuver: Managing Director, Houlihan Lokey
Harsh Srivastav: Portfolio Manager, PIMCO
Moderator – Helen Rodriguez: Head of European Special Situations, CreditSights
Tour of European Special Situation sector 2024 themes through different lenses – articulated by our panel members.

15:15pm - Euro HY Consumer/Retail Panel: Relatively Unscathed, For Now

Maryum Ali, CFA: Senior Analyst, Consumer Goods, CreditSights
Amarveer Singh: Senior Analyst, Food Retail and Gaming, CreditSights
Samik Majumdar: Head of HY Discretionary Retail, CreditSights
• After consumer spending held up better than expected in 2023, we discuss how consumer behaviour might evolve in 2024.
• We examine how companies and consumers alike may have to adapt in a potential higher-for-longer rates environment.
• We also highlight key picks and pans and identify credit factors that differentiate winners and losers in the space.

16:00pm - Euro HY TMT: Calling Time on Excessive Leverage?

Mark Chapman, CFA: Head of European TMT, CreditSights
Alex Lawrence: Analyst, TMT, CreditSights
Euro HY Telcos have wrestled in 2023 with how to right size their debt stacks for a higher rate world against the backdrop of light maturities. With 2025 maturities now looming, 2024 will test the extent to which they can convince investors they’ve got the balance right.

16:25pm - Debt Collectors: Crisis Mode

Samik Majumdar: Head of HY Discretionary Retail, CreditSights
• The sector faces a dramatic change in their world view, as increased funding costs and diminished supply poses steep challenges.
• We highlight various strategies and financing strategies being put in place, and take a deep dive into cash flow dynamics over the medium term
• Potential scenarios for various issuers and options to deal with a potentially difficult refinancing exercise