2024 European Outlook:
Conference Materials

Andrew Moulder: Head of Utilities, CreditSights
Bozhidar Dinkov: Analyst, Utilities, CreditSights

We expect the Euro utility sector to be stable in 2024, but some things need to change:
• Offshore project economics are under pressure
• UK Water is in the spotlight
• The European gas crisis has not gone away

Maryum Ali, CFA: Senior Analyst, Consumer Goods, CreditSights
Jahan Miah: Analyst, Consumer Goods, CreditSights

• With inflationary pressures easing and the pandemic in the rearview, we highlight the key themes for the sector heading into 2024.
• Key topics of discussion include: pricing vs volumes, geographic exposure and event risk (i.e. M&A vs shareholder rewards).
• We also touch on GLP-1 and the potential ramifications for the food & bev industry.

Andrew Belton: Head of Basics and Infrastructure, CreditSights
Laurent Vergnault: Senior Analyst, Chemicals, Paper & Packaging, CreditSights
Felicity Juckes: Analyst, Chemicals, Paper & Packaging, CreditSights
Mihir Trivedi: Analyst, Construction / Infrastructure, CreditSights

We invite four of our Euro Basics analysts to discuss where the various sectors are in their respective cycles:
– Building Materials & Construction
– Chemicals
– Metals & Mining
– Paper & Packaging

We review the year just gone, highlight what went to plan, and examine what surprised us
We also look forward to 2024
– Has the typical cycle changed?
– Has inflation played out as a risk?
– How susceptible is the space to “High for Longer” fallout?
– Will the long-feared recession actually arrive?
– Is the focus on Sustainability just a Fashion or a new Zeitgiest?

Finally we outline our thoughts on Relative Value and put forward our key Picks and Pans

Jim Williamson: Senior Analyst, Autos, CreditSights
Mark Ryan: Analyst, Autos, CreditSights
Ash Nadershahi: Head of HY Industrials & Transportation, CreditSights

With economic uncertainty front and center, we discuss in detail some of the key themes and considerations for cyclically exposed HY Auto and Industrial credits in 2024.

Martina Seydoux: Senior Analyst, Insurance, CreditSights

• As we edge closer to the end of Solvency II grandfathering in 2025, calls and tenders will be the main game in town but it is likely to be a lottery.
• The European insurance fundamental outlook will be more of the same with strong earnings feeding higher solvency ratios as inflation risks appear to be abating.
• As the loss burden from elevated nat cats shifts to primary insurers, with 2024 impossible to predict, macro headwinds likely to influence credit spread movements more than fundamentals.

Mathieu Le Cann, CFA: Senior Analyst, Services, CreditSights

• In this most idiosyncratic of sectors, we shed light on the overarching macro risks and take a closer look at equipment rental and parking operators.
• We examine the impact of interest rates on financial policies and assess the 2024 outlook for refinancing and M&A activity.
• We select those dishes that investors should indulge in and those that are better left untouched.

Ruth McGavin: Managing Editor, LevFin Insights

• Borrowers find success, and face challenges, in tackling debt maturities
• How to build bridges over the valuation gap and revive M&A activity
• The developing “sibling rivalry” between syndicated and private lending
• Outlook for CLO issuance as core driver of technical demand

Shoshanna Harrow: Senior Director, Senior Covenant Analyst, Covenant Review
Shane Burke: Director, Senior Covenant Analyst, Covenant Review

A discussion on key documentary provisions that facilitate tackling debt maturities (non-coercive), with case studies on tightened terms, widened terms, and loopholes to watch for.

Sandrine Bradley: Senior Reporter, LevFin Insights
Mark Chapman: Head of European TMT, CreditSights
Alastair Gillespie: Senior Director, Covenant Review
Gijs de Reuver: Managing Director, Houlihan Lokey
Harsh Srivastav: Portfolio Manager, PIMCO
Moderator – Helen Rodriguez: Head of European Special Situations, CreditSights

Tour of European Special Situation sector 2024 themes through different lenses – articulated by our panel members.

Maryum Ali, CFA: Senior Analyst, Consumer Goods, CreditSights
Amarveer Singh: Senior Analyst, Food Retail and Gaming, CreditSights
Samik Majumdar: Head of HY Discretionary Retail, CreditSights

• After consumer spending held up better than expected in 2023, we discuss how consumer behaviour might evolve in 2024.
• We examine how companies and consumers alike may have to adapt in a potential higher-for-longer rates environment.
• We also highlight key picks and pans and identify credit factors that differentiate winners and losers in the space.

Mark Chapman, CFA: Head of European TMT, CreditSights
Alex Lawrence: Analyst, TMT, CreditSights

Euro HY Telcos have wrestled in 2023 with how to right size their debt stacks for a higher rate world against the backdrop of light maturities. With 2025 maturities now looming, 2024 will test the extent to which they can convince investors they’ve got the balance right.

Samik Majumdar: Head of HY Discretionary Retail, CreditSights

• The sector faces a dramatic change in their world view, as increased funding costs and diminished supply poses steep challenges.
• We highlight various strategies and financing strategies being put in place, and take a deep dive into cash flow dynamics over the medium term
• Potential scenarios for various issuers and options to deal with a potentially difficult refinancing exercise